Smart people have this idea that they can figure things out. That’s what smart people do every day. But I think it gets applied too broadly. Some things can’t be figured out. The next successful thing seems like something that a smart person could figure out. But they can’t. Tens years ago no one would have bet on Instagram and Snapchat, two things that couldn’t have existed 10 years ago because too many other pieces had to move into play. 10 years is a long time but odds are that you wouldn’t have bet on either of those 5 years ago, or 3, or even last year. Confusing what you know and believe for how the world is.