A problem you’ll run into when trying to predict the future is figuring out what kind of math to use. It is easy to get things wrong if you try to do the math in your head since our brains aren’t very good at large numbers or logarithmic scales. Plus, the math you need to calculate something over two aces is different than if you need to calculate over more. What I’m trying to say is that you have to put the effort in to be methodical.
Using the wrong kind of math can trick you into thinking your estimate is in the ballpark if future reality when it actually isn’t on the same continent.