Yesterday I was listening to the most recent Asymcar podcast and one of the primary topics of discussion was about the market penetration of electric vehicles in the year 2040. OPEC made a claim that by 2040 only 6% of the world’s vehicles would be electric and the podcast’s host, Horace Dediu had crunched the numbers to see if that was a realistic number. Horace talked through all the factors and constraints and his most optimistic calculations were that only around 14% of the market could be electric vehicles in 2040. I’m guessing the actual number will be somewhere in the middle, so let’s assume 10%.
Something that I think we could all agree is inevitable, the adoption of electric vehicles, won’t even make a sizable dent in the market in 15 more years.
Our world may feel faster than ever before, but meaningful change takes time.