Today I was listening to episode 159 of The Critical Path and if I heard correctly, Horace predicted imminent doom for the web as we know it – the web that we get to by using a browser on a computer or phone. This doom will be brought about by content blockers stopping advertising revenues. I’m going to have to listen to the podcast again to make sure I heard his point correctly, but even if I didn’t I think there’s an interesting thought experiment in the idea (and I’m completely ignoring any thoughts about the web going away right now, but that is very interesting too.)
If advertisers stopped paying to advertise on the web, where would they choose to advertise instead. Ads have been proven to shape consumer behavior so it is unlikely that advertisers will just stop paying for them. Their budgets won’t decrease, at least not immediately, so they’ll have money to spend. What medium will they choose? Especially now that TV, radio, and newsprint are each struggling to stay alive.
Will they choose apps, podcasts or push more dollars towards streaming video ads? I have no idea. But it’s an interesting thing to think about. And if you can guess right, it could be valuable.